NVO · 6-K

Filing note · 6-K · filed 2026-11-04 · NOVO NORDISK A S

Novo Nordisk A/S: Raises 2026 outlook as obesity growth offsets diabetes and U.S. pressure

### Executive Summary
Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 adjusted sales and adjusted operating-profit growth outlook to -2% to +2% at constant exchange rates (CER), from -6% to 0%, as stronger expected GLP-1 sales offset continued pressure elsewhere. The upgrade sits alongside a more mixed underlying picture: nine-month adjusted sales grew just 2% at CER, while a non-cash 340B provision reversal boosted reported sales and DKK 15.0 billion of impairments weighed on reported results.

### What Happened
For the first nine months of 2026, reported sales were DKK 254.5 billion, including a DKK 26.76 billion reversal of a U.S. 340B rebate provision that the company says had no cash impact. Adjusted sales were DKK 227.75 billion, up 2% at CER. The mix diverged: adjusted obesity sales rose 20% at CER, while diabetes sales fell 5%; U.S. sales declined 2% at CER as International Operations grew 8%.

In Q3, adjusted sales increased 4% at CER to DKK 79.2 billion. Obesity sales grew 22%, while diabetes sales fell 5%. Wegovy pill sales were DKK 5.4 billion in the quarter. Q3 reported operating profit was DKK 23.0 billion, including DKK 8.7 billion of impairments related mainly to ziltivekimab and manufacturing-network right-sizing; adjusted operating profit was DKK 31.7 billion. The company also raised expected 2026 free cash flow to DKK 60–70 billion and lowered expected capital expenditure to about DKK 50 billion. It reported repurchases of 41.7 million B shares for DKK 11.56 billion as of November 2, within its DKK 15 billion programme.

### Why It Matters
The raised outlook is a positive demand signal, but it is not evidence of broad-based growth: obesity is carrying the business while diabetes and U.S. sales remain weak. Management’s 2026 outlook anticipates growth in International Operations but a decline in U.S. Operations, reflecting lower realized prices, competition, the Most Favoured Nations agreement and reduced Medicaid obesity-drug coverage. Planned U.S. list-price reductions to $675 for specified Wegovy and Ozempic products from January 1, 2027, are expected by the company to affect 2027 cash flow.

Reported growth and profitability need to be read alongside the adjustments. The 340B reversal inflates reported nine-month sales without adding cash, while the impairments record pipeline and manufacturing setbacks; adjusted diluted EPS fell 3% to DKK 18.60. Cash generation is a counterweight—nine-month free cash flow was DKK 83.8 billion, and net debt fell to DKK 79.7 billion at September 30—but the higher free-cash-flow outlook also reflects timing factors and lower capital expenditure. Pipeline execution remains a risk: the denecimig U.S. review is extended due to manufacturing-facility remediation, and ziltivekimab trials faced setbacks.

### Context & Prior Filing Comparison
Against the company’s August 4, 2026 outlook, adjusted sales and adjusted operating-profit growth guidance each moved from -6% to 0% to -2% to +2% at CER. Expected free cash flow increased from DKK 45–55 billion to DKK 60–70 billion, while expected capital expenditure declined from about DKK 55 billion to about DKK 50 billion.

The separate November 3 share-repurchase 6-K is context, not the target filing. The target’s reported repurchase total as of November 2—41.7 million B shares for DKK 11.56 billion—updates the programme’s progress; it is not an investor ownership disclosure.

### What to Watch Next
- U.S. pricing and access: Specified Wegovy and Ozempic list-price changes are scheduled for January 1, 2027; monitor realized prices, volumes and cash-flow effects.
- Regulatory milestones: The filing expected an FDA decision on the 25 mg Ozempic pill in Q4 2026. Denecimig’s review remains ongoing, with a potential U.S. launch in H1 2027 subject to approval.
- Commercial execution: Track Wegovy pill uptake and whether obesity growth can offset diabetes weakness, U.S. declines and pricing pressure.
- Reporting dates: Novo scheduled its 2026 financial statement and Annual Report for February 3, 2027, and first-quarter 2027 results for May 5, 2027.

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